2026: Swing the House
2026: Swing the House
take back the country!
take back the country!
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The most important thing we can do to stop our downward slide is to take back the House. As usual the Senate but the path is narrow and already well-funded, but we can't take the House for granted.
Oversight and subpoena authority and preventing bad bills come with control of the House. That's the prize we're focused on.
As always, Swing the House focuses on one overriding question: what's the best and most impactful way to give to Democrats this cycle? Here's our theory: retaking the House is both the most direct and most likely way to make Republicans pay for Trump's corruption and his attacks on our Democracy. Direct donations to high quality House candidates delivers resources for targeted field operations and lowest-dollar cost broadcast advertising that can activate voters in critical swing districts. Consistent with our past, successful modeling/targeting, we've done the math and selected what we see as the 15 most important House races to invest in this cycle.
Our work starts with a bottoms-up, district-by-district build of the 2026 House map and then screens based on following criteria:
Races that we believe are amongst the most likely to be the "tipping point" for House control, i.e. the decisive 218th seat by partisan lean
Despite all the gerrymandering, the main races are the same, we'll target 10-15 races that are true toss-ups or leaning R.
We are targeting 4 vulnerable incumbents in Trump-y districts or red states, four of whom have had their districts move significantly redder through gerrymanders.
We are targeting 3 winnable districts in PA and starting with 4 districts that we lost narrowly in 2024 where the primaries are already done.
As the later primaries get decide, we'll likely add two districts in Michigan, one in Arizona. We're also monitoring polling in Virginia after Democrats were stymied by the supreme court there.
Our races are mostly in exurban and rural, lower cost media markets -- where a 30 second ad during the nightly news can cost less than $1,000. Our candidates are overwhelmingly moderate and while there is no ideological tests applied here, that's what it takes to win in these critical, generally slightly Republican leaning areas. All your donations go DIRECTLY TO THE CANDIDATES, no PACs, no overhead or consultants, no inefficient spend.
On compliance, none of our candidates are state and local officials, so we've made it as easy as possible for anyone who has corporate compliance review.
Defend These Seats
Defend These Seats
New Leaders in Congress
New Leaders in Congress
Join us!
Join us!
We're the New Congress Fund (NCF). We're dedicated to an analytical approach to Democratic fundraising, targeting our dollars at races that will have the largest impact on political power in Washington, DC. In 2018, that meant supporting 11 House challengers that were most likely to be the tipping point for House Democratic control, focusing on moderately Republican leaning districts. In 2020, we ran two efforts: early in the cycle, we held the largest single event to support 14 vulnerable House freshman in potentially decisive races and in the fall of 2020 we raised money for close House races in the purplest Presidential swing states -- helping vulnerable Dems and pushing Biden into the White House. In 2022, our view was that if Democrats were to win the House it would be the slimmest of margins and supported a slate of 10 candidates including those we thought had the best chance to win in very Republican leaning areas, like Alaska and ME-2. While our approach does not look to "pick winners"--to the contrary we look for races we expect to be close, hard fought, and tough to win--across our targeted funds ~80% of the candidates we backed have won, well above the win rates projected by most models. For more detail on our previous efforts, click here.
2024 is already the wildest Presidential election since 1968, and yet the field of swing states and swing districts is narrower than ever. Still we're committed to the highest impact political giving.
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